35 Reasons Why Oil Production Might Decline

  1. Putin’s war in Ukraine
  2. wars somewhere, anywhere
  3. sanctions on Russia
  4. lack of access to Russian oil and gas
  5. trade war with China
  6. trade war with anyone
  7. real war with China
  8. oil price not high enough
  9. oil price not stable enough
  10. interest rates too high
  11. interest rates not stable
  12. fear of ‘anti-growth’ coalition
  13. climate activists & ‘alarmists’
  14. anti-capitalist rhetoric and wokeness creating hostile environment
  15. activist shareholders
  16. need to reward proper shareholders
  17. fear of divestment by pensions and universities
  18. too much CSR (corporate social responsibility)
  19. too much ESG (any ESG = too much) [ESG = environmental, social, and governance]
  20. too much sustainability and green baloney
  21. insufficient investment by governments in helpful technology, eg US government funded and did much of the early research which led to fracking
  22. insufficient tax breaks for exploration
  23. permitting difficulties
  24. mixed government messages
  25. unstable regulatory environment
  26. too many regulations in general
  27. being forced to invest in flaky, unreliable renewables instead of solid oil and gas (= government’s fault for investing too much)
  28. technology for CCUS going too slowly (= government’s fault for not investing enough)
  29. too many tax breaks being given to renewables
  30. alarmist messages from UN and IEA
  31. shortage of geologists
  32. shortage of engineers
  33. young people being scared off working for big oil by activists
  34. too early to tell – need more data (this excuse should last for a few years and can be revised, updated and spun in various helpful ways)
  35. Greta Thunberg
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